Asian Economy: Where are the Asian countries after the crisis of Covid?
If the virus was much less devastating in Asian than Western countries. The economy of these countries was, however, weakened by the crisis because economic growth of the latter is far too dependent on exports to Europe and the United States.
In March, it was anticipated that the pandemic and lockdown series could cost 211 billion to the economies of Asia Pacific. China could know a growth of 3%, while Japan, Australia and Hong Kong flirteraient recession. If the forecast gave a weakened Asia but what about the economic reality of these countries after the period of confinement?
economic pattern of Asia during the pandemic
The Southeast Asia was one of the regions of the world who knew the fastest growth before the pandemic, the economy is advancing by about 5% annually. But the strict closures and border closures were quickly stifled private consumption, public investment and tourism revenues, resulting in deep contractions.
The gross domestic product of Malaysia decreased 17.1% year on year in the quarter April-June, while the Philippines dropped 16.5%, Singapore 13.2% and Thailand 12.2%; the worst results for over 20 years. Indonesia also recorded its worst figure since 1999, with a contraction of 5.3%, while Vietnam has achieved a marginal increase of 0.4%, well below the clip 7% growth observed before crisis.
These figures put the countries of Southeast Asia between the other major economies. They are less well behaved than China, which grew 3.2%. They are responsible for the contraction of 9.5% in the US and down 9.9% from Japan. But they did better than France, which fell by 19%, and the UK, which plunged 21.7%.
Yet the sense of crisis of the block of Southeast Asia may be greater. For years, these countries have relied on the benefits of globalization, namely the flow of investment and tourist arrivals. And in many cases, the financial health of their governments is relatively low.
The immediate threat is different from one country to another. Indonesia and the Philippines continue to report thousands of cases per day. Vietnam was one of the successes of the pandemic, but it is faced with a sudden surge since last month. Malaysia, which once recorded more than 100 cases a day, has maintained its daily rate to one or two digits.
Asian Economy: A multi-speed recovery.
The Asia Pacific region also begins to recover timidly, but at multiple speeds. Economic activity is expected to contract 2.2% in 2020, due to a sharper slowdown than expected in key emerging markets, and grow 6.9% in 2021, respectively 0.6 percentage point least 0.3 percentage point more than in the update of June 2020 World economic Outlook.
Prospects vary by country depending on the rate of infection and containment measures, the extent and effectiveness of the policy response, the use of contact-intensive activities and dependence on towards external demand. In parts of Asia where the virus transmission rates are low, mobility and activity could normalize faster than elsewhere. However, it is likely that the healing occurs, because participation in the labor market has declined and production is expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends in the medium term the company more vulnerable to being able to be the most affected.
Economic performance in the third quarter: presentation by country
Asian countries have experienced different levels of growth. If countries like China grew 4.9% in the third quarter, Singapore patina revive themselves. A look at economic growth in major Asian heavyweights is important to see how they have evolved beyond the period of confinement.
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